China’s coal industry is undergoing a significant transformation as production and consumption patterns shift across the country. In 2024, the nation’s leading coal enterprises produced 4.76 billion tons of coal, marking a 1.3% year-on-year increase.
Source: China Environment News
China’s coal industry is undergoing a significant transformation as production and consumption patterns shift across the country. In 2024, the nation’s leading coal enterprises produced 4.76 billion tons of coal, marking a 1.3% year-on-year increase. Meanwhile, coal imports surged 14.4% to 543 million tons, reflecting China’s continued reliance on both domestic and imported coal to meet its energy needs.
As the backbone of China’s energy system, coal remains critical for ensuring energy security. However, with the country moving toward its carbon peaking targets, the next decade is expected to bring fundamental changes to the industry. Over the coming years, China’s coal production growth will be concentrated in the western regions, particularly Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, which are projected to account for 80% of the country’s total output increase. In contrast, eastern China will see a decline in production, while central China is expected to maintain stable output levels.
On the demand side, two key trends are emerging:
Coastal regions, including East China, South China, and the Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta areas, will remain the largest coal consumers. However, these regions will continue to rely on coal transported from western China, supplemented by imports to meet demand.
Central and western regions, traditionally known for coal production, are evolving into major consumers as well. This shift is driven by the expansion of coal chemical industries and coal-fired power plants, which are increasingly shaping China’s energy landscape.
Looking ahead, three key trends will shape the industry through 2035:
Coal consumption is expected to plateau, with annual production stabilizing at around 5 billion tons between 2025 and 2035.
Coal production will continue shifting westward, with declining output in the east, stable production in central regions, and continued growth in the west.
The next decade represents the final window for coal production expansion, as output is forecast to peak at around 5 billion tons by 2030, before leveling off or declining in the longer term.
As China navigates its energy transition, these shifts in coal supply, consumption, and transportation will play a critical role in shaping the country’s broader energy strategy. While coal will remain a key pillar of energy security in the near future, the industry must prepare for long-term structural changes driven by policy shifts, market dynamics, and the push toward cleaner energy sources.
（Niu Kehong , the author is a senior researcher of the China Energy Research Society）