Domestic excavator sales expected to be around 6,000 units in July, up nearly 17% year-on-year
After investigation and market research, CME forecasts July 2024 sales of excavators (including exports) to be around 14,000 units, up around 11.06% year-on-year, and the market is accelerating its rebound.
Domestic sales of excavators in July expected to be around 6,000 units
After investigation and market research, CME forecasts July 2024 sales of excavators (including exports) to be around 14,000 units, up around 11.06% year-on-year, and the market is accelerating its rebound.
In terms of sub-markets, the domestic market forecasts sales of 6,000 units, up nearly 17% year-on-year, with the rate of increase narrowing by 8 percentage points year-on-year. The export market estimated sales of 8,000 units, an increase of nearly 7% year-on-year. Benefit from the national brands to inventory, low base of the same period last year, some overseas demand for a mild recovery, the export market to return to positive growth.
According to CME observation data, in January-July 2024, the overall sales volume of China's excavating machinery decreased by about 3% year-on-year, with the rate of decline continuing to narrow. Among them, the domestic market grew nearly 6% year-on-year, while sales in the export market fell 11% year-on-year. The data have improved from January-June.
Downstream end: infrastructure investment continues to improve
As one of the two major downstreams of excavator application, infrastructure investment continued to improve.
From January to June 2024, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) amounted to RMB 245,391.1 billion, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year, of which, the private fixed asset investment amounted to RMB 127,278.8 billion, an increase of 0.1% year-on-year. On a year-on-year basis, fixed asset investment (excluding farm households) increased by 0.21% in June.
By industry, investment in the primary industry amounted to RMB 454 billion, up 3.1% year-on-year; investment in the secondary industry amounted to RMB 8229.7 billion, up 12.6%; and investment in the tertiary industry amounted to RMB 1,585.4 billion, down 0.2%.
In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 12.6% year-on-year. Among them, investment in mining industry increased by 17.0%, investment in manufacturing industry increased by 9.5%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 24.2%.
In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry) increased by 5.4%. Among them, investment in water management industry increased by 27.4%, investment in air transportation industry increased by 23.7%, and investment in railroad transportation industry increased by 18.5%.
Downstream: real estate development investment continued to pressure
From January to June, the national real estate development investment of 5,252.9 billion yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year; of which, residential investment of 3,988.3 billion yuan, down 10.4%.
From January to June, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 69,681.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 12.0%. Among them, residential construction area of 4874.37 million square meters, down 12.5%. New housing construction area of 380.23 million square meters, down 23.7%. Of which, residential new construction area of 277.48 million square meters, down 23.6%. Housing completion area of 265.19 million square meters, down 21.8%. Among them, the completed residential area of 192.59 million square meters, down 21.7%.
In June, the real estate development boom index (referred to as the “national housing boom index”) was 92.11.
Real estate consumer demand and confidence is still insufficient, the recovery needs time, superimposed on the land purchase cost and housing new construction area decline, the real estate industry to “guarantee the delivery of buildings” and “go to the inventory” as the main, these two points in the completion of the area of growth rate can be glimpsed one or two. Although recently, this by the policy side of the conduction to the sales side still need some time. Excavators are mostly used in real estate construction projects, and housing construction area and excavator sales were strong consistency, the decline is obvious.
Starts end: affected by the rainy season in June starts fell 2.5% year-on-year.
Komatsu excavator start-up hours in June 2024 were 87.9 hours down 2.5% year-on-year, and deteriorated by 3.2 percentage points from the previous year.
From the downstream point of view, it is difficult to say that the real estate sector is optimistic, although the rate of decline in investment growth has narrowed, but the rate of decline is still large. Infrastructure investment as the stabilizer of the economy, its growth rate received local government revenue and expenditure conflicts intensified and other factors, so the current demand side of the improvement is not obvious, but due to the low base of the same period, the replacement of the new cycle, price and other factors, the middle digging market began to return to growth.
Excavating machinery industry by the macroeconomic impact, the global fixed asset investment policy changes will have an impact on the development of the industry. After the election, the new U.S. president's political ideas, and its implementation of trade policy after coming to power, infrastructure construction programs, monetary policy will, to a certain extent, affect China's excavating machinery export market.
We should be soberly aware that the current industry recovery foundation is not yet solid, the start of the end of the improvement is not obvious, the poor market expectations are still the outstanding issue. With the “promotion of large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action program” and other series of policies continue to promote, taking into account the lag and superimposed positive policies, the excavating machinery market is expected to gradually out of the bottom of the cycle.