Without low-carbon energy, new energy vehicles are not truly new energy vehicles

On February 25, at the 2025 China Electric Vehicle 100-Person Forum Expert Media Exchange, Ouyang Minggao, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100-Person Forum, stated that China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) are currently in the "electrification phase," or the "1.0 era."

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On February 25, at the 2025 China Electric Vehicle 100-Person Forum Expert Media Exchange, Ouyang Minggao, Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Vice Chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100-Person Forum, stated that China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) are currently in the "electrification phase," or the "1.0 era." The next stage, the "2.0 era," will see the rise of intelligent electric vehicles, while the "3.0 era" will bring intelligent new energy vehicles. Ouyang predicts that the 3.0 era will largely be realized by 2035.

In 2024, China’s automotive production and sales are expected to exceed 31 million units, setting a new historical record. The production and sales of NEVs will surpass 12 million units, keeping China at the forefront of the global market for the tenth consecutive year. Ouyang emphasized that the automotive industry is transitioning from the electrification development phase to an explosive growth phase, signaling a major shift in the market. By 2025, plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) will account for 40% of domestic NEV sales, with extended-range vehicles holding around 10%, and the share of pure electric vehicles (EVs) expected to drop from 60% to 50%. NEV sales are projected to exceed 15 million units this year. Although the growth rate for electric vehicles will gradually slow due to the large market base, the overall volume will see substantial increases.

Ouyang also highlighted the crucial point: “Without low-carbon energy, new energy vehicles are not truly new energy vehicles.” In his view, the roadmap for the NEV revolution involves three key transformations: the electrification of powertrains, the intelligence of vehicles, and the integration of low-carbon energy.

Currently, coal remains dominant in China’s energy mix, but by 2030, non-fossil energy is expected to account for more than 50% of the country’s electricity generation. Ouyang predicts that by 2030, China will enter the explosive growth phase of the new energy revolution. Alongside breakthroughs in NEVs, lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, and perovskite solar cells, the next 10 to 30 years will see the rise of five trillion-yuan industries: new energy infrastructure, smart and zero-carbon energy industries, green hydrogen, fully electrified transportation, and the NEV sector itself. By 2035, green electricity is expected to become the primary source of power for vehicle charging, and total global sales of new energy vehicles could approach 30 million units. The number of NEVs in use is projected to range from 200 million to 300 million, marking the point at which the NEV revolution will be largely complete.